Bong Go, Erwin Tulfo still leading senatorial race – Octa survey

Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go and ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo

MANILA, Philippines — Senator Christopher “Bong” Go and ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo remained as frontrunners in the Octa Research senatorial survey, while actor Philip Salvador is now one of the “probable winners.”

Go, Tulfo, and Salvador are among the 19 candidates with a “statistical chance of winning.”

A total of 64.2 percent said they are voting for Go and 61.2 percent for Tulfo, while 24.4 percent said they will vote for Salvador.

Former senators Bam Aquino and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan are also among the contenders for the Senate “Magic 12.”

Aquino is preferred by 32.3 percent of survey participants, while 30.3 percent of respondents want Pangilinan for senator.

Biggest gainers

Salvador made it to the “probable winners” slate on Octa’s survey for the first time.

Political analyst Richard Heydarian said the “sympathy factor” stemming from former President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest rubbed off on Salvador, who presented himself as a “loyal soldier.”

“We can clearly see a consolidation of support behind prominent Duterte supporters, and former actor Philip Salvador has been deft in maximizing the sympathy factor for the former president’s detention at The Hague,” Heydarian told INQUIRER.net in a text message.

“He has consistently presented himself as a loyal soldier and sincere defender of Duterte — and such pathos has clearly resonated with an electorate that is likely to send yet another version of Robinhood Padilla to the Senate,” he added.

‘Big tent alliance’

On the other hand, Aquino gained an additional 4.3 percentage points, and Pangilinan three points compared to the previous Octa survey, improving their ranking in the already tight spot.

Heydarian attributed this steady increase to former Vice President Leni Robredo’s forming of a “big tent alliance,” the timing of which, he said, is “timely.”

“Former Vice President Leni Robredo’s timely intervention in favor of a big tent alliance and steady messaging by key opposition candidates seem to work, but enjoying the tacit support of the administration would be crucial come the actual Election Day where state machinery could make a huge difference for those chasing last spots in the Senate race,” he explained.

Here is the full list of 19 probable winners for the 2025 midterm polls:

Go, Bong – 64.2 percent (rank 1-2)

Tulfo, Erwin – 61.2 percent (rank 1-2)

Ben Bitag – 45.4 percent (rank 3-7)

Sotto, Tito – 43.3 percent (rank 3-8)

Dela Rosa, Bato – 40.4 percent (rank 3-10)

Lacson, Ping – 39.7 percent (rank 3-10)

Cayetano, Pia – 39.5 percent (rank 3-10)

Bong Revilla, Ramon, Jr. – 38.7 percent (rank 3-10)

Lapid, Lito – 36.9 percent (rank 5-11)

Binay, Abby – 35.7 percent (rank 5-14)

Aquino, Bam – 32.3 percent (rank 9-18)

Villar, Camille – 30.4 percent (rank 10-18)

Pacquiao, Manny Pacman – 30.3 percent (rank 10-18)

Pangilinan, Kiko – 30.3 percent (rank 10-18)

Revillame, Willie Wil – 29 percent (rank 11-19)

Abalos, Benhur – 28.8 percent (rank 11-19)

Marcos, Imee R. – 27.9 percent (rank 11-19)

Tolentino, Francis Tol – 27.7 percent (rank 11-19)

Salvador, Phillip Ipe 24.4 percent (rank 12-20)

A total of 1,200 registered voters were interviewed from April 10 to 16, Octa said.