David Michael Padua, senior typhoon specialist of Weather Philippines Foundation, talks about typhoons in a disaster preparedness forum at the Marcelo Fernan Cebu Press Center in Barangay Lahug, Cebu City (CDN PHOTO/CHRISTIAN MANINGO).
Typhoon specialist says chances of La Niña occurring in PH lessens
A typhoon expert yesterday emphasized the importance of being informed and aware of the latest weather developments so as to prepare for any resulting calamities.
David Michael Padua, senior typhoon specialist of Weather Philippines Foundation (WPF), also said that according to the latest data they gathered, there would be lesser chances of a strong La Niña from happening in the country from October to December this year.
“Lagi tayong maging aware and maging resilient enough pag may mga malalakas na bagyo (We should always be aware and resilient enough when a strong typhoon hits),” said Padua, who was one of the speakers of yesterday’s forum entitled Weather 101: Preparing for Disaster at the Marcelo Fernan Cebu Press Center in Barangay Lahug, Cebu City.
“Makining lagi sa official typhoon information or information from the weather bureau, national government, and also like sa Weather Philippines na tumutulong din sa kanila, and non-governmental organizations that deal with climate na nakakatulong (They should tune in or listen to official typhoon information or gather information from the weather bureau, national government and also from the Weather Philippines, which helps them, and even nongovernment organizations that deal with climate that are also helpful),” he said.
Padua explained to at least 50 students from different universities in Cebu City who attended the forum how a typhoon would happen, the types of typhoon and major hazards that a typhoon would cause as among the topics he discussed.
WPF
Padua also said that the WPF, which is a project using Aboitiz Group’s resources and network, and MeteoGroup’s technical expertise, was not, however, ruling out the possibility that this forecast might change in the coming weeks due to various atmospheric factors that might change the forecast over time.
La Niña
“Based sa latest data, yun ang pinapakita (that is what is shown),” he said.
“Every month, nagbabago yung forecast eh (the forecast changes) so worst possible, baka magkaroon ng mahina, mahinang (there might be a weak) La Niña. Depende kasi yan sa (It will depend on) climatic intervention,” he said.
He also said that because of this latest weather development, the WPF canceled its “La Niña Watch.”
Padua said that the chances of having a weak La Niña in the last quarter of the year had gone down to 40 percent with 57 percent possibility that the continuing neutral weather conditions would prevail in this period which would persist through May next year.
“Kasi last month po, ang chances are nasa 58 percent,” he said.
“Ngayon po, bumaba sa 40 percent and now, 57 percent ngayon ang normal conditions. Ibig sabihin po, neutral ang climate natin,” said Padua.
Padua attributed this development to the current state of the atmospheric temperature as well as the current ocean surface temperature that has to correspond to a certain degree before a state of La Niña could officially be declared.
According to Padua, WPF based their local findings on the 780 weather stations that they have within the country, with more than 20 stations located in Cebu, as well as the data gathered by international communities such as the World Meteorological Organization.
As for typhoons, Padua said that since January of this year, 18 typhoons in the Western Pacific have already been recorded, seven of which entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
He said five more typhoons would be expected to enter the country within the year.
Yesterday’s forum which was organized by the Aboitiz Equity Ventures and the Freeman and part of activities of the 22nd Cebu Press Freedom Week, was also attended by some representatives from Cebu’s media.