Disaster imagination, what?
The name of the new strategy for responding to natural and man-made calamities may sound strange to those expecting grown-up language for the grim reality of catastrophes.
At the heart of the advice of Phivolcs director Renato Solidum Jr. is common sense.
After identifying the hazard spots of a town, city or province and and assessing how prone they are to landslides, typhoons, earthquakes or tsunamis, you can tell people what to avoid and where.
The early action can save lives. At least you’re prepared to warn the populace.
But if you stop there, and don’t stretch the horizon to make scenarios of actual damage, decision makers can’t see how much to prepare for when the full impact of the disaster strikes.
The simulation scenarios that Phivolcs can spit out is the science-based “imagination” Solidum hopes will make communties safer – if the leaders are paying attention.
It’s good advice for Cebu in the wake of the 7.2 earthquake that battered Bohol last year and the 6.9 tremor that rocked Negros Oriental in 2012.
Cebu felt the shaking of its neighboring islands.
Instead of just making the sign of the cross, and thanking the Sto. Niño for “sparing” his beloved Cebuanos, there are urgent, practical steps to take to deal with the reality that natural disasters visit Central Visayas frequently.
Here’s another uncomfortable fact: Cebu has four known fault lines.
Quiet so far for decades, they haven’t disturbed our lives since the Big One in 1922, which registered the maximum intensity of 7 and 8.
But since 2012, the dramatic jolts and infrastructure damage of quakes whose epicenters have erupted at the west and east of Cebu island – far enough not to cause a tsunami –– have ripped apart the illusion that Cebu is earthquake-free.
It’s just a matter of time.
Ask the experts in Phivolcs, who are suddenly undertaking special studies of the geological makeup of Cebu.
Solidum’s pitch for “disaster imagination” was mentioned in a two-day roadshow “Iba na ang Panahon: Science for Safer Communities” sponsored by the Department of Science and Technology.
It’s sound and welcome advice, but we can imagine local governments, with frugal ways, hesitant to see the scenario maps that splash red over their territory, alerting officials that 80 percent of their existing buildings would collapse in a strong quake.
A real “risk assessment” would account for the loss of lives, buildings, economy, the very fabric of a community.
Fortunately, Phivolcs has free computer software to run these simulations. So far, there are only a few takers.
Who has the courage to know the worst-case scenario? And who has faith bold enough to believe they will find the resources to respond to a calamity before it happens and keep a community safe from the wrath of Nature?
We dearly hope Cebu city and Province steps up to say yes.