Much hope is placed on the signing of the Bangsamoro Basic Law which the government worked out with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. When it’s finally approved by Congress, I can only pray that it will achieve its final objective of creating lasting peace and development in Mindanao. I will not be surprised, though, if it will not.
I just read the executive summary report of “The case of Mindanao, Philippines” which is part of the study on the Subnational Conflict and International Development Assistance in the Contested Areas of Asia made by The Asia Foundation. Written by Fermin Adriano and Thomas Parks, the Philippine summary shows how complicated is the situation in the conflict area of Mindanao which also makes it hard for international aid agencies working there to meet their objectives.
As a background, Mindanao accounts for 34 percent of the total area of the country, with the Visayas having 19 percent and Luzon, 47 percent. In the 2010 census, Mindanao reported a population of 21.968 million or 23.8 percent of the total for the country.
However, despite its huge potential for development, it only accounts for 14.4 percent of the country’s gross domestic product or GDP in 2012 with per capita income which is equivalent only to less than two thirds or 61.0 percent of the national average. Relatively, it was much better in 1975 or just few years after the Mindanao conflict started.
Then, the people there contributed 16.9 percent of the GDP with per capita income equal to more than three fourths or 78.0 percent of the national average. What was wrong?
Not much really, except that while the promise of Mindanao had been fulfilled to much of its migrants from the Visayas and Luzon in areas dominated by the Christians like in Davao and Northern Mindanao, the areas of conflict or where the many of our Muslim brothers and sisters live had not shown much improvement.
For example, the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao or ARMM with 3.5 percent of the population of the country in 2010 accounts for less than one percent or 0.8 of the GDP in 2012. This only gave the people there a per capita income which was equivalent only to 21.7 percent of the national average, the lowest in the country.
With very low per capita income, it is also not surprising to see ARMM recording the highest poverty incidence at 55.8 percent of its population in 2012 which is more than twice the national average of 25.1 percent of the population in poverty.
Historically, the Mindanao conflict can be traced back to the 16th century when the Manila-based Spaniards tried to extend their span of control beyond the Visayas to Mindanao. We knew of course how the native Muslim population of the island fiercely resisted this incursion which also resulted in them attacking unprotected Christian coastal communities in the Visayas and Luzon in retaliation. When the Spaniards left, nothing could be seen of any concrete hold of the Manila government over the areas in Mindanao where our Muslims brothers and sisters predominate.
This the Americans changed but only with their more powerful arms and cunning and the deaths of thousands.
History would also show that our Muslim brothers and sisters did not want originally to be part of the newly inaugurated Philippine Republic. They preferred to be left alone or continuously ruled by the Americans. They did accept the Philippine government’s sovereignty in the end but only with great reluctance. But the desire to be free from Manila’s tentacles continued through the years which promptly resurfaced again after the Jabidah massacre. It was after the massacre when the Mindanao rebellion started. This is the same rebellion that the Bangsamoro Basic Law hopes to end.
Some may say that the problem in Mindanao is just a matter of underdevelopment and that the conflict can easily be resolved if the area is allowed to develop with more assistance from outside, both national and international. The paper that I read tells me, however, that such a hope may be misplaced because while outside aid may be necessary to develop the area, much of the problem is due to complicated local leadership and political dynamics.
In short, the conflict as I see it is not just about locals fighting the government for whatever perceived objectives but between local leaders and their followers for supremacy.
Here is how the report starts its narrative: “The conflict in Mindanao is complex, multi-layered and defies simple explanation. The region includes at least six major non-state armed groups, with dozens of militia units. The protracted nature of conflict and instability has led to the emergence of other types of conflict, particularly between local elites competing for power.”
Such a situation is not easy to deal with for many agencies that come to help the people in conflict in Mindanao. Thus, the report also says: “At first glance, all the right conditions appear to be in place for aid to make a significant contribution to peace and development—the Government of the Philippines has been remarkably open to international assistance; there has been a formal political transition underway since 1996; the region has a special autonomy arrangement in place; and senior government officials, including some military officials, have provided relatively strong and consistent support for the peace settlement.
Yet, despite large amounts of aid for more than a decade, Mindanao’s conflict environment has not improved.”
The report also found of course some problems relating to the delivery of aid in the area ranging from fragmentation and duplication and the problem of linking their project outputs with the objective of reducing armed conflicts in the area covered by their projects, not to mention the problem of dealing with competing local leaderships that want some control or a piece of the various projects implemented by aid agencies.
Still, I hope that peace will reign in Mindanao, now or later.