(This is the first part of a two-part special report about the flooding crisis in Cebu City, and how the ongoing climate change affects it.)
CEBU CITY, Philippines — In typical urban areas in the Philippines like Cebu City, cars have become necessities, mostly to allow people to navigate and travel to work faster and more conveniently.
This is why quality control specialist Desiree Buncad, who is from Brgy. Labangon, decided to invest in one. On top of that, having her own car also protected her from the unpredictability of the weather — both the harsh sun and the sudden rains.
But lately, the downpours in Cebu City has made Buncad, 40, realize that even owning a vehicle cannot prevent her from the inconvenience and hassle of flooded streets.
“You can no longer navigate roads because of the very high flooding everywhere in the city,” Buncad said in an interview with CDN Digital.
However, the floods in Cebu City not only affect car owners like her, but commuters as well.
When heavy rains occur and result in severe floods, it is passengers like Evalou Marbie dela Cruz that will bear the brunt.
Every time the streets here get flooded, she finds it difficult and burdensome, especially when she is left stranded for hours.
“Sobra ka hassle siya, samot nang nagdali ka, naa kay gi-apas nga lakaw unya di ka dayun kasakay,” said Dela Cruz, a 27-year-old worker at a business processing outsource firm based in Brgy. Apas.
(It is really much of a hassle, especially if you are in a hurry, you have a meeting to go to and then you cannot find a ride to your meeting.)
Worsening Floods
Flooding had been a perennial issue in huge cities like Cebu City but findings from CDN Digital showed that this situation may only get worse.
Data from the Mactan station of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) showed that in the past decade, Cebu’s annual rainfall volume had exceeded normal levels — except in years when the El Niño struck.
Furthermore, due to climate change, the island province may likely face ‘a wetter future’.
But the solutions being implemented, including billions worth of flood-control infrastructure projects, both from the national and local governments, may prove insufficient.
Additionally, they may be unable to cope with the worsening climate crisis, which could lead to constant flooding, disrupting the daily lives of residents here.
As a result, citizens, experts and environmentalists alike urged the public sector not only to address the perennial flooding crisis on a long-term basis but to also prioritize climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.
“We are very concerned about the worsening flooding and the problems that we see happening in our environment, or the lack of regard for the protection of our environment in Cebu,” said lawyer Rose-Liza Eisma-Osorio, legal and policy director of the environmental group Oceana Philippines.
Rainfall
Cebu experiences an average of 138 days of rainfall annually, according to Pagasa.
The island province also receives an average of 1,685 millimeters (mm) of rainfall per year. This volume of rainfall is equivalent to the water found in around 700 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
According to Pagasa-Mactan chief, Engr. Al Quiblat, a mere 1 millimeter of rain is equivalent to 5,000 drums of water per square kilometer. That’s enough to fill an Olympic-sized pool by half.
A standard-sized Olympic swimming pool can hold up to 2.5 million liters of water.
But data from Pagasa-Mactan showed that in the previous 10 years, the volume of rain in the island province had slightly increased over the past decade. We used a scatter plot to determine the trendline of the annual rainfall in Cebu and reached this finding.
Furthermore, the same data revealed that the annual rainfall volume in Cebu had already exceeded the average – except in 2015, 2018 and 2019. To recall, in 2015 and 2019, the Philippines experienced the El Niño, when the surface area temperature of the Pacific Ocean gets unusually warmer.
El Niño often brings drought, with weeks – or even months – of no rain. It’s also a major reason why some parts of the country get much less rain than usual.
Causes
But rainfall is just one factor behind the flooding crisis here.
Even in the 1980s, there had been instances of flooding, said Engr. Maria Nenita Jumao-as, board member at the University of San Carlos – Water Resources Center Foundation Inc. (WRCFI).
USC – WRCFI is an institution that provides consulting services about managing water resources. It is also involved in analyzing data and providing technical assistance and advisories to both members of the public and private sectors involved in water.
Throughout the years, Jumao-as has observed that the flooding here is the result of multiple factors.
“When you ask what is or are the causes of flooding in Cebu? I cannot give a straightforward answer because it’s a lot of things,” she said.
These included clogged drainage due to improper waste disposal, lack of regular drainage maintenance, rapid urbanization, deforestation, and even leadership in governance.
Jumao-as also said the lack of proper management of water resources have contributed to severe flooding.
Wetter Future
But in recent years, the reasons behind flooding – not only in Cebu City but also other urban areas in the Philippines for that matter — have been compounded by a more pressing and alarming threat — and that is climate change.
The ongoing climate crisis may lead Cebu, like other parts of the world, to face a ‘wetter future’.
Aside from a warming planet, many scientists pointed out that more intense rains — which could lead to disastrous consequences like life-threatening floods — as one of the biggest indicators of climate change [1].
These come in the form of extreme precipitation or intense rains within a certain period.
A study published in the journal Advancing Earth and Space Sciences projected that the frequency of intense rains may increase as the world gets warmer [1].
To put it simply, the world may face more days where the volume of rainfall being dumped within short periods may exceed normal levels.
In fact, last July, heavy rains that resulted in landslides killing hundreds in southern India last month were made worse by human-caused climate change, a rapid analysis by climate scientists reported.
The study by the World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who used established climate models to quickly determine whether human-caused climate change played a part in extreme weather events around the world, found that the 15 centimeters (5.91 inches) of rain that fell in a 24-hour period – July 29-30 – was 10 percent more intense because of global warming.
The group expects further emissions of planet-heating gases will result in increasingly frequent intense downpours that can lead to such disasters.
According to Quiblat and Jumao-as, there is no study yet to determine how climate change specifically impacts the weather in Cebu.
But we examined Pagasa’s daily rainfall records for Cebu, from 2014 to 2023, and found out that there were indeed instances of heavy or extreme precipitation in certain periods which resulted in severe flooding in Cebu City.
In these cases, the volume of rainfall dumped had exceeded the normal or average for a certain month. Interestingly, most of them occurred recently — in April, August and September of 2022.
That year, Cebu received an abnormally high volume of rainfall in a year — at 2,237 mm or equivalent to approximately 800 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
In April, we found out that Cebu received an excessive amount of rain. April usually receives around 56 mm of rain only since it falls under the Philippines’ hot and dry season or colloquially referred to as ‘summer.’
But in 2022, the island recorded a total of 361.4 mm of rain that month, around six times more than the normal level.
Additionally, more than half of the rainfall recorded in April 2022 was dumped within a span of 12 days only — from April 1 to April 12.
One factor behind the unusually high volume of rain that time could be the presence of Tropical Storm Agaton (international name: Agaton) whose effects were felt between April 9 and April 11.
It not only resulted in floodings in various areas in Cebu City but also landslides. The city government even suspended classes as well as offices due to the inclement weather.
Eventually, the city government had to declare a state of calamity due to the widespread floods. Fortunately, there were no weather-related casualties reported here.
A similar case also happened in August 2022, four months later.
But this time, the rains that occurred from August 3 to August 5 were not only intense but also deadly. Massive floods led to the Kamputhaw River to swell, sweeping the lives of two people, including a young boy.
The Kinalumsan River that cuts across Barangays Labangon, Tisa, and Mambaling also overflowed, sweeping away a middle-aged man. Authorities managed to rescue the victim later on.
READ: Cebu City hit by worst flood since Typhoon Odette
During those three specific days in August, the amount of rainfall dumped in Cebu had exceeded the average monthly rainfall volume.
Every August, the island province is expected to receive around 158 mm of rainfall – equivalent to 63 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
But in those three days alone, Cebu received close to 200 mm of rainfall, equal to 80 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
Impact
Both Buncad and Dela Cruz agreed that they observed that the rains in Cebu had intensified compared to the previous years.
“Ask your elders that are still alive to this day, and they can share to you what it’s (floodings in Cebu City were) like before and today,” Buncad pointed out.
For commuters like Dela Cruz, who would travel anywhere in the city for errands and for work, heavy rains also meant trouble as floodwaters would virtually make the roads impassable.
“Di siya lalim, samot nang commuter ka or naa kay dinalian nga lakaw, unya usa sad maka ana ka sa imong mind nga hugaw kaayu ang baha. Unsaon ko ni paglabang, asa ko agi ani,” she said.
(It is not easy, especially if you are a commuter or you have a quick trip to do, and that is one of the things that will come to your mind is that the floodwaters are dirty. How can I cross, where will I go to pass this area.)
Dela Cruz also shared that there were times when sudden downpours only worsened the situation she was in. In some instances, she was not only left stranded for hours, but also, miserably soaking wet.
“Basang sisiw – unya isa pa, ma-stranded ka, dugay ka makasakay,” she added.
(I am soaking wet- then one more thing – you are stranded, it will take you a while to get a ride.)
The impact of floods is wide and far-reaching. They threaten not only lives and livelihoods, but they also exacerbate existing issues, said Osorio.
Floodwaters not only worsen but also expose the lack of reliable mass transportation in Cebu City. And those that face the full force of floods happened to be commuters and motorists like Dela Cruz and Buncad.
“Luoy no, especially when there’s flooding, ang public – especially the riding public (ang heavily affected),” added Osorio, who is also a member of the Save Cebu Movement, a coalition of non-profit groups aimed at promoting a sustainable and livable Cebu.
(It’s really a pitiful situation [for the public], especially when there’s flooding, the public – especially the riding public, will be heavily affected)
“Our public transportation is not flood-proof. Lots of people are stranded in the streets and it’s the riding public that gets affected severely,” she added.
READ: Floods caused by heavy rains, clogged drainages in Cebu, says CCDRRMO
“Ask your elders that are still alive to this day, and they can share to you what it’s (floodings in Cebu City were) like before and today,” said Desiree Buncad.
On top of motorists and commuters, flooding has also affected the business and education sectors in the city.
One of the worst flood-related incidents Osorio experienced was in September 2023, when intense rains led to waist-deep floods in Brgy. Banilad, where she worked as a lecturer for a law school there.
At that time, they had to resort to online classes as the flood made it impossible and hazardous for both students and faculty members to personally attend classes in their university.
“That was the worst (case of flooding I experienced in Cebu City). Also, it was the first time, in my years in Cebu City, when I saw cars literally floating in front of the mall tungod sa baha (because of the flood),” she added. / with reports from Emmariel Ares, the Associated Press
To be continued
[End of Part 1]
Sources:
[1] Climate Change Is Thrusting the World Towards a Wetter Future, Not a Dry One: Study | Weather.com