The Binay Gambit

Puerte na gyung bukal sa kaldero sa politika.  (The political pot is boiling) and pundits who have been glued in discussions related to the Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP), plunder cases against 3 politically powerful senators, their key staff members including suspected pork barrel fund scam mastermind Janet Lim Napoles among other issues affecting public life suddenly find themselves talking about reports that Vice President Jejomar Binay has found favor with the administration Liberal Party enough for him to be considered as the coalition candidate for the 2016 presidential race.

It was Binay himself who divulged moves within the LP, what he described as “raw information” coming from the LP camp.  The report practically caused a bedlam among mainstream media throughout of Tuesday (August 5).   Senate President Franklin Drilon was quick to remark the report was a “product of spinmasters” but the fact that Binay himself shared the latest from PNoy’s inner circle was quite telling.

The news was capped Tuesday evening by a remark from the garrulous presidential sister Kris Aquino who said that the idea of a supposed unity ticket had been a topic of family discussions.  Kris said that adopting Binay as a common candidate is not impossible because he is not an enemy of the Aquinos.  As if to spare her brother the President from being dragged in another controversy on top of existing ones, the media celebrity clarified she was just speaking for her sisters.

It was also reported that in a separate interview, Maria Elena “Ballsy” Cruz, the eldest of the Aquino siblings said she is good with Binay. According to Ballsy, she has not heard Binay backstabbing the Aquino family even once.

If the Aquino sisters feel this way with the Veep, where does that leave PNoy as leader of the political party that is presumed to anoint Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas as candidate for president in 2016?

Reports say LP stalwarts are pushing for a middle ground, in which the President will seek another term.  This way, he will not support either Binay or Roxas but the route is paved with complications and threatens to further erode the President’s support base because people are not in the mood for changing the Constitution.

The LP is all for preserving the status quo but everybody’s reading of PNoy’s temperament is that he is not going to stay a minute longer after June 30, 2016.  Secretary Mar Roxas cannot support Charter Change without implying that he cannot win in the presidential race against Vice President Binay.

The ratings game says it all.  Binay has 41 percent approval rating in the Pulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan (June 24 – July 2), while Roxas managed only with a measly 7 percent.

Tony Lopez of the Manila Standard translated the percentage points to votes, such that if elections were held today, Binay will have won by a landslide of more than 9 million votes over the challenger (Roxas) who counted only with 3.5 million.  This is a fair assumption in a two-way race but as we know, there are plenty of wannabes, like Senators Grace Poe, Chiz Escudero and Allan Peter Cayetano.

It is still two years before the 2016 elections, but this situation suggests that the administration finds itself at a loss on how to overturn Binay’s strength, this even if the administration candidate has a built-in advantage in terms of control over government machinery on top of a massive campaign war chest.

Binay’s popularity and Roxas’ dismal ratings are the reasons behind moves to bring the front runner in the race to the LP fold.  The so-called Binay gambit is a titillating scenario but I think the Veep needs to exercise restraint. Former President and now Manila Mayor Joseph “Erap” Estrada puts it rather pointedly when he said that the opposition candidate for president cannot be the same candidate of the administration because, in his words, “that is no longer democracy”.