Residents of Cebu City woke up to dark skies on Thursday morning, July 4, 2024. | CDN Photo/ Emmariel Ares
CEBU CITY, Philippines – Despite the heavy rainfall experienced in various parts of Cebu in the past month, the weather bureau clarified that the La Niña phenomenon has not started yet.
According to Engr. Al Quiblat, chief at the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration in Mactan (Pagasa-Mactan), the country is currently in the neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ENSO refers to the naturally occurring phenomenon of the climate system that is the result of the interaction between the ocen and the atmosphere in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP).
Quiblat explained that ENSO has three phases: El Niño, neutral, and La Niña.
El Niño, known for warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall, ended on June 7 this year. The preceding months of drought due to El Niño significantly impacted agricultural production.
Now in the neutral phase following El Niño, the country is transitioning towards La Niña, which typically brings increased rainfall. During the neutral phase, neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevail.
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Pagasa has issued a La Niña watch due to favorable conditions for its development in the coming months. Quiblat noted a decreased likelihood of La Niña occurring this year, from 69 percent to 55 percent.
“However, katong latest nato nga climate forum, nihinay ang indication sa La Niña nga modevelop,” he said.
This means there’s a reduced chance of La Niña occurring in the next few months.
If La Niña does develop, it’s expected to start later, from October to December, rather than August to October.
Quiblat cited that if La Niña does occur, it might last until March next year, but cautioned against complacency and advised preparing for potential weather changes.
He added that Pagasa is monitoring La Niña’s probability, which could heighten risks like heavy rain, floods, and landslides. /clorenciana