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MANILA – The weather bureau said Wednesday there is a high chance – or a 74-percent probability – that weak La Niña would develop between December and January.
“La Niña alert persists, with La Niña-like conditions currently prevail in the Tropical Pacific,” Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) climate monitoring and prediction section chief Ana Solis said in a forum.
The weak La Niña is seen to persist until the first quarter of 2025, while a full blown La Niña is unlikely at this point, Solis added.
In terms of forecast rainfall in December, Solis said some areas in the country would experience near to above normal rainfall, with concentration in the eastern section of the country.
The rains in December will be caused by various weather systems, including the northeast monsoon, possible tropical cyclones, and localized thunderstorms.
Generally, near to above normal rainfall is also forecast in January, particularly in the Bicol region and Eastern Visayas, as well as portions of Mimaropa and Southern Luzon.
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A low pressure area, a potential tropical cyclone, and the intertropical convergence zone will most likely cause the rainfall in January, according to Solis.
Meanwhile, Solid said the country could experience one to two tropical cyclones in December.
Two to eight tropical cyclones are expected from December to May, Solis said.