Explainer: Why Cebu is under heavy rainfall
CEBU CITY, Philippines — Persistent rains across Cebu this week are being driven by a combination of a shear line, the northeast monsoon (amihan), and localized thunderstorms, weather officials said, creating conditions that have triggered flooding risks and rainfall warnings in large parts of the province.
What is causing the rain in Cebu?
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), the primary weather system affecting Cebu is a shear line. In this zone, cold air from the northeast monsoon meets warm air from the Pacific.
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This interaction enhances cloud formation and rainfall, particularly over the Visayas, including Cebu. While the northeast monsoon remains dominant over much of Luzon, its effects extend southward, reinforcing rain-bearing systems over Central Visayas.
Pagasa said this setup had resulted in continuous moderate to heavy rains, especially during peak rain hours, with rainfall accumulation becoming significant in some areas.
READ: EXPLAINER: What do color-coded rainfall warnings mean?
How intense is the rainfall expected to be?
Pagasa forecast that Cebu could receive 50 to 100 millimeters of rain on Tuesday, February 10, enough to trigger flooding in low-lying and urban areas and landslides in mountainous or upland communities.
Such rainfall levels fall within thresholds that typically prompt orange rainfall warnings, signaling a heightened risk of weather-related hazards.
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Areas under orange rainfall warning
On Tuesday morning, Pagasa issued an orange rainfall warning for several areas in Cebu due to persistent moderate to heavy rains.
Affected areas include:
Carmen, Catmon, Danao City, Compostela, Tuburan, Sogod, Asturias, Balamban, Toledo City, City of Naga, Minglanilla, City of Talisay, Mandaue City, Consolacion, Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City, Cordova, San Fernando, City of Carcar, Barili, Liloan, Pinamungajan, and Aloguinsan.
Under an orange rainfall warning, flooding is threatening in low-lying areas, while landslides are possible in mountainous and elevated locations, Pagasa said.
READ: Rains to drench PH Monday as amihan, shear line prevail
Why rains may linger in the coming days
Weather officials said the interaction between the shear line and the northeast monsoon is expected to persist, while localized thunderstorms, common during periods of atmospheric instability, may further intensify rainfall, particularly in the afternoons and evenings.
Even in areas where rains temporarily ease, Pagasa warned that sudden downpours remained possible, increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides.
Advisory to the public
Residents in flood- and landslide-prone areas are advised to remain alert, monitor official weather advisories, and follow instructions from local disaster risk reduction offices.
Pagasa also warned of rough to very rough coastal waters over parts of the Visayas due to the northeast monsoon, posing risks to small sea vessels.
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