Pagasa weather specialist Obet Badrina delivers a public weather forecast on November 1, 2023. | screengrab from Pagasa
MANILA, Philippines — One to two tropical cyclones may enter or develop within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) in November, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.
Pagasa weather specialist Obet Badrina revealed this in a public forecast on Wednesday, November 1, 2023.
“Ngayong buwan ng Nobyembre, ito po ang ating inaasahan o usual track ng bagyo: posible itong dumaan sa bahagi ng Visayas, maaari rin dito sa bahagi ng Bicol Region at hanggang Luzon, or maaari rin mangyari na ito ay mag recurve,” said Badrina.
(This November, this is our expected or usual track of tropical cyclones: it may pass through the Visayas, it may also pass through the Bicol Region and up to Luzon, or it may also recurve.)
Track similar to Yolanda
Badrina said supertyphoon Yolanda, one of the strongest cyclones to hit the Philippines, had the same track. The weather disturbance ravaged the country in November 8, 2013.
“Kaya sa mga kababayan natin sa Visayas, maging sa Mindanao, ay ibayong pag-iingat pa rin,” he added.
(So for our compatriots in the Visayas, even in Mindanao, we still need to be careful.)
Meanwhile, Badrina said rain showers are likely in Southern Luzon, parts of Calabarzon, as well as Manila on All Saints’ Day.
“Sa mga dadalaw sa puntod [ng mga yumaong kamag anak] ay [kung] maaari po ay magdala ng pananggalang sa pag-ulan sapagkat sa Southern Luzon, bahagi ng Calabarzon, kasama ang kamaynilaan ay malaki ang tiyansa ng pag-ulan sa araw na ito,” said Badrina in a public forecast.
(For those who will visit the graves [of deceased relatives], [if possible] bring protection against the rain because in Southern Luzon, part of Calabarzon, as well as Manila, there is a high chance of rain on this day.)
According to Badrina, these rain showers are caused by the following weather systems: the Low Pressure Area (LPA) over the coastal waters of Caramoan, Catanduanes; the shear line, and the northeast monsoon (locally termed amihan).
Residents of Metro Manila, mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Bulacan, Calabarzon, Marinduque, and Camarines Norte may particularly experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers due to the combined effects of the LPA and shear line.
The northeast monsoon, on the other hand, continues to affect Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Ecija, the rest of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, and the rest of Central Luzon, bringing cloudy skies with rains.
Partly cloudy skies with isolated rain showers persist in Visayas, Mindanao, the rest of Mimaropa, and the rest of Bicol Region due to localized thunderstorms.
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