Present El Niño the most intense in world history, extends to 2016

Dalaguete is known as the Vegetable Basket in Cebu province but the summer’s dry spell is giving farmers a hard time to grow their crops

The  El Niño phenomenon which Cebu is experiencing will intensify and likely stretch to the second quarter of 2016.

It may be the most intense one the world has ever experienced, said Al Quiblat, officer-in-charge of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

He briefed the  Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council  (PDRRMC) meeting yesterday.

With this in mind, Quiblat said he believes the province should extend its  declaration of a state of calamity which started in May.

No final decision has been reached yet.

Gov. Hilario Davide III said it wasn’t brought up during the council meeting which focused on budgets for next year.

The El Niño forecast  means   that Cebu will experience a dry spell, lesser rainfall, and warmer temperatures, said Quiblat.

In September, however, Cebu had above-normal rainfall at 233.4 millimeters which exceeded the 179.1 mm for for the same month during  the last El Niño.

From June to the present, Cebu also  experienced  above normal rain unlike 39 provinces which had less rainfall.

But Quiblat warned that in November until May next year, Cebu will experience less rain.

He said normal rainfall will resume in June of 2016.

Quiblat said  the situation will worsen due to the entry of the northeast monsoon or amihan . northeast monsoon.

February until April next year will be  months with rainfall  less than 100 mm.

Due to the El Niño, only  one typhoon will enter the Philippines every month from  November to  April while May and June may experience one to two typhoons.

If these typhoons enter the PAR, Quiblat said there is only a 60 to 70 percent chance that it will pass Cebu.

Quiblat said international prediction centers have interpreted and analyzed that the intensifying El Niño in the Pacific Ocean will exceed the three greatest phenomena the nation has felt since 1972.

The most intense among the three was that of 1997 to 1998 when sea surface temperature reached 2.4 degrees Celsius.

This is followed by that of 1982-1983, with sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean reaching 2.2 degress Celsius.

In 1972-1973, sea surface temperature was recorded at 2.1 degrees Celsius.

In Pagasa Mactan’s public advisory last Oct. 8, sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean was recorded at 2.4 degrees Celsius already.

“With this, American scientists, as early as August this year, have considered this present phenomenon as one with the potential to become the strongest El Niño in the history of the world,” said Quiblat.