PH’s largest net dollar outflow since 1999 seen by year’s end

MANILA, Philippines – The recent appreciation of the peso against the US greenback helped draw in more hard currency in November, but failed to derail the Philippines’ steady trek towards recording its largest full year net dollar outflows since central bank records became publicly available 19 years ago.

Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed the country’s overall balance of payments position yielded a surplus of $847 million in November 2018, marking a reversal from the $44 million deficit recorded in the same month last year.

Despite the surplus for last month, the cumulative dollar flows position for the January-November 2018 period registered a deficit of $4.75 billion, which is higher than the $1.78 billion deficit recorded in the comparable period in 2017.

Central bank planners expect to end 2018 with a balance of payments deficit of $5.5 billion — the widest gap in the BSP’s publicly available database that goes back to 1999.

Over the last 19 years, the country has only posted yearend net dollar outflows in 2000 and 2001, at the height of the Estrada political crisis; in 2004 during the Arroyo fiscal crisis; in 2014 with the end of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy; and in 2016, 2017, and this year.