THE expected onslaught of the El Niño weather phenomenon does not mean there will be no storms coming in the last quarter of the year, government experts said yesterday.
Edna Juanillo, chief of the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division of the state weather bureau, Pagasa, explained that the country will continue to have tropical cyclones but the occurrence will dwindle towards the tail-end of the year.
The country is normally visited by an average of 13 to 16 storms in a year.
“It doesn’t mean you have El Niño wala ng bagyo. The month of July has near normal rainfall, (typhoon) Glenda (international name: Rammasun) is the second storm for this month and we are still expecting another,” she said.
An average of 13-16 tropical cyclones will still visit the country for the remaining six months however from October to December, the tropical cyclones or storms will somehow deflect because of the phenomenon but it has been observed that typhoons that come in an El Niño year are stronger.
“No two El Niño is alike, it is unique on its own way,” said Juanillo.
The El Nino in 1997 was the worst recorded as it caused about three billion pesos in damage to the agricultural sector.
Juanillo said the Visayas and Mindanao were the most affected areas that year.
El Nino is a large-scale oceanographic and meteorological phenomenon brought about by the unusually warm ocean surface temperatures that develop in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and associated extreme climatic variability like devastating rains, strong winds debilitating droughts.
Leonardo Samar of Pagasa Mactan weather station said the rains brought by typhoon Glenda come as a big help to the community as it will help in conserving water for the upcoming El Niño phenomenon.
“Pwede sila makasawd sa tubig ulan para mao na ang ilang gamiton para paglimpyo sa ilang sakyanan, ug sa C.R., panlaba aron makatipid pod tag tubig para sa umaabot nga El Niño,” said Samar. (People can take advantage of the rains by collecting the rainwater in containers which they can use for cleaning their cars, flushing the toilet, for laundry purposes. It helps in conserving water especially now that we expect the El Nino to come)
Roy Abaya, director of the Field Operation Service of the Department of Agriculture (DA), said that together with Pagasa they have created a vulnerability map that will identify areas in the country where El Niño will probably hit.
Abaya said that Cebu which mostly generates corn will be vulnerable to the effects of the phenomenon. Citing the dry season of April this year he said it had a negative effect on the agriculture due to the moisture stress.
For rice production, the country had an insignificant loss in production of .24 percent while in the corn generation, it had a loss of 1.21 percent for April 2014.
“There is an expected decrease in the production of rice, corn, coconut and other field crops, livestock and fisheries. However, he said that it will give way to the crops which requires less water like mango and other export-earning fruit and sugar.
With the mitigation plan they have created, it is estimated the El Niño will have an impact of seven percent loss to the expected harvest for first quarter of 2015. While in corn production, an expected loss for the 2015 first quarter harvest of 17 percent.
He said repairs of irrigation and crop calendar modification and cropping patterns will be implemented.
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