The economic toll of an emerging pandemic
As countries grapple with the spread of the deadly 2019 new coronavirus, there are fears the deadly infectious agent is developing into a pandemic, one that will impact severely on the global economy.
The Wuhan virus was first detected in Wuhan City, in the Chinese province of Hubei in late December with double digit infections reported but the number of cases and death toll have risen rapidly in large numbers by the day.
According to a South China Morning Post update, the Wuhan virus infection and deaths hit record daily highs with 12,027 cases across 22 countries. Most of confirmed cases are traced to mainland China with 11,860. The death toll has risen to 259 as of February 1, 2020.
Public health authorities find this development worrisome because compared to the epidemic called severe acute respiratory syndrome, an airborne virus which hit China and spread to 26 other countries in 2002, the number of SARS infections over a two-year period was 8,000. The virus claimed 774 lives over the same period. SARS came to an end in 2003 through standard infection control practices such as hand hygiene, use of personal protective equipment like gloves, impermeable gowns, masks, face shields and eye protection, routine environmental cleaning, waste management, respiratory hygiene and cough etiquette, etc. There is no prophylactic treatment for SARS and vaccines are in the development stage.
Meanwhile, the Wuhan virus has not shown any signs of abatement despite the World Health Organization’s declaration of a global health emergency and its call to arms for a concerted effort among member states to quell the outbreak. The WHO statement had the effect of minimizing public anxiety but judging from the response of various countries, government leaders are wary that the Wuhan virus has all the signs of a pandemic.
Outside of mainland China, confirmed cases of the deadly virus were reported as well in Japan, Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Australia,Malaysia, Cambodia, Philippines,Thailand, Nepal, Sri Lanka, India, USA, Canada, France, Finland, Germany, United Arab Emirates. The list is getting longer as countries continue to monitor the outbreak in their own backyard. For example, Cyprus reportedly attended to its first suspected case of coronavirus, after a man arriving from Wuhan showed signs of infection. Latest reports said Spain, Sweden, and Russia have confirmed cases of the deadly virus. The African continent has no reported cases of coronavirus infections yet but countries with weak public health systems will be vulnerable.
The economic dimensions of the new coronavirus are worrisome for the more than 300 of the world’s top 500 companies which have built manufacturing and distribution centers in Wuhan City, like Microsoft, German-based software company SAP, French car maker Groupe PSA, General Motors, Japanese car makers Honda Motor Company and Nissan, to name a few.
In case you didn’t know, high-end automobiles BMW and Audi are now being manufactured and distributed in Wuhan, including Volkswagen which is said to produce more than 4 million vehicles a year there, according to the Wall Street Journal. Ford Motors has a subsidiary Ford China located in the neighboring province of Chongquing.
Concerns about the virus crossing borders has curtailed travel in many countries. In the US, three of the country’s largest carriers Delta, American and United Airlines have canceled more flights between the United States and China.
The decision for American Airlines came after the labor union representing 15,000 pilots sued the company to halt its US-China service citing “serious and in many ways still unknown health threats posed by the coronavirus.”
This, after the State Department issued a specific travel advisory urging US citizens not to travel to China. The three airlines are expected to repatriate US citizens from Beijing and other Chinese cities until February 4 and stop flight schedules until the end of March.
Air Canada, British Airways, budget air Indigo Airlines, Air India also announced cancellations of select flights to and from China following reports of confirmed infections in France and Germany. The online magazine Time has reported that KLM or Royal Dutch Airlines also opted to suspend flights to Beijing and Shanghai after this weekend until February 9. Earlier, the airline canceled scheduled flights to Chengdu, Hangzhou and Xiamen.
Here at home, Cebu Pacific announced it has canceled flights to and from mainland China, Macau, and Hong Kong starting February 2 to March 29. The nation’s flag carrier, Philippine Airlines likewise announced last week that charter flights between Kalibo, Aklan and Nanjing, Hangzhou and Pudong, Shanghai in China have been suspected. It remains to be seen if PAL will still maintain their scheduled flights between Manila and Beijing and other Chinese cities including Hong Kong and Macau in light of these developments. One angle that will upend the decision of PAL echelon to lean in favor of servicing Chinese passengers would be the organized action of its pilots and in flight crew.
Hong Kong which is led by the Beijing-backed Carrie Lam announced a partial shut down in the region’s high-speed rail and ferry service to China. The move was seen to reduce cross-border transit through flights and tour buses between the semi-autonomous region and China. Apparently, the partial shutdown did not sit well with the civil society group called Hospital Authority Employees Alliance, a pro-democracy group. The alliance of health workers has threatened to go on strike if Hong Kong does not close all borders with mainland China.
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