From 2016 to 2022: Provinces’ flip key to Marcos win

Technical problems, long lines and flaring tempers mark voting in many polling centers across the country on Monday (May 9) but overall the national and local elections went smoothly, with pandemic restrictions observed, like here at Aurora Quezon Elementary School in Quezon City. —MARIANNE BERMUDEZ

MANILA, Philippines—Far different from 2016, when Leni Robredo took down Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s vice presidential bid by a hairline, the 2022 election saw Marcos win in 64 out of 81 provinces.

Robredo, who won in 42 provinces in 2016, had a thin lead against Marcos—263,473 votes. She received 14,418,817 votes while Marcos, who won in 32 provinces and Metro Manila, received 14,155,344 votes.v

GRAPHIC: Kurt Dela Peña

This year, however, as seen in the partial and unofficial results of the elections, which already represent 98.35 percent of election returns, with 31,104,175 votes, Marcos is set to win the presidency by a landslide against Robredo’s 14,822,051 votes.

READ: Marcos, Duterte head for landslide win

GRAPHIC: Kurt Dela Peña

While 14 provinces, where Robredo won in 2016, still held out as her strongholds, Marcos won in 64 provinces—31 were his strongholds since 2016, 28 were provinces that flipped from Robredo, while the rest were provinces where Alan Cayetano won in 2016.

GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan

The provinces that still held out as Marcos strongholds were Abra, Apayao, Aurora, Bataan, Benguet, Biliran, Bulacan, Cagayan, Cavite, Cotabato, Dinagat Islands, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Laguna, Leyte, Mountain Province, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Pampanga, Pangasinan, Quirino, Rizal, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sulu, Zambales, and Zamboanga del Sur.

As mentioned, Marcos also won in provinces that were once considered Robredo or Cayetano strongholds: Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Aklan, Basilan, Batangas, Bohol, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Cebu, Lanao del Norte, Maguindanao, Marinduque, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Negros Oriental, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Romblon, Samar, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur; Tarlac, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, and Surigao del Sur.

GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan

Prof. Maria Ela Atienza, of the University of the Philippines’ Department of Political Science, told INQUIRER.net that the UniTeam of Marcos and presidential daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio had “plenty of resources and networks that have been at work for years.”

GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan

She said that when political parties are weak and politics still stand traditional, local politicians were expected to go to the team with more resources and higher chance of winning.

“Finally, President Rodrigo Duterte is very popular until now which translated to votes for his daughter, Sara, and her running mate, Marcos, in both the North and South of the country, even if the President did not directly endorse Marcos,” she said.

Provinces lost by Robredo

It was in 2016 when Robredo won in Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Aklan, Albay, Antique, Basilan, Batanes, Batangas, Bohol, Bukidnon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Camiguin, Capiz, Catanduanes, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Guimaras, Iloilo, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Marinduque, Masbate, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Northern Samar, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Quezon, Romblon, Samar, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Tarlac, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, and Zamboanga Sibugay.

However, this year, she lost 28 of the 42 provinces. Atienza stressed that “for one, she (Robredo) is in the opposition now and ran as an independent,” saying that in 2016, she was the one fielded by the Aquino administration.

GRAPHIC: Kurt Dela Peña

She said that while Robredo, back in 2016, had gained from the resources and machinery of the then dominant Liberal Party, the disinformation and attacks against her have intensified in the past six years.

“The measly budget given to her office also prevented her from getting enough public exposure even if her office prioritized livelihood and humanitarian support for many sectors,” Atienza said.

The only provinces where Robredo won in 2022 were Albay, Antique, Batanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Capiz, Catanduanes, Eastern Samar, Guimaras, Iloilo, Masbate, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar, Quezon, and Sorsogon, the only province in the Bicol Region where Robredo lost in 2016 as Chiz Escudero received 203,689 votes while Robredo only received 97,129 votes.

Out of the 14,822,051 votes that Robredo received last May 9, 4,459,762 votes were from the said 15 provinces. She even won in Quezon where Marcos’ presidential bid was endorsed by Governor Danilo Suarez.

READ: Suarez says Marcos Jr. may win in Quezon province this time

For Atienza, the votes that Robredo received in the Bicol Region may be explained by “regional loyalty,” especially with “the fact that people in the area know her and her track record”.

“No amount of disinformation defeated these factors,” she said.

As to the Visayas, especially in the western provinces, “these are the areas with a number of progressive and successful local chief executives who are vocal and can challenge and criticize the national government”.

She said that “there is economic growth and there are growing practices of good governance as against traditional politics”.

Vote-rich provinces for Marcos

This year, Marcos won in 11 of the 15 most vote-rich provinces—Cebu, Cavite, Pangasinan, Laguna, Bulacan, Batangas, Rizal, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Davao del Sur, and Leyte. These were also the provinces where he had a wide lead against Robredo.

RELATED STORY: All politics is local: Win, loss record of local backers of Marcos, Robredo