1 to 3 storms may enter PH in July — Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — Around one to three tropical cyclones may enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) for July 2021, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) announced on Wednesday, June 30, 2021.

According to Pagasa, the common track for tropical cyclones during the month of July, based on previous years’ data, is that storms would come in from the east, over the Pacific Ocean.

Cyclones would then either hit areas in Luzon or graze the northeastern part of the country, or totally recurve towards Japan.

“Sa buwan po ng Hulyo 2021, ang pagtaya po ng ating Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, isa hanggang tatlong bagyo ang posibleng pumasok sa Philippine area of responsibility,” weather specialist Ariel Rojas said.

(For the month of July 2021, Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section expects one to three cyclones that would enter the Philippine area of responsibility.)

“Sa mga nagdaang taon, para sa buwan ng Hulyo, ay landfall at non-landfalling lamang po ang ating scenario.  ‘Yong mga non-landfalling na bagyo ay either papunta dyan sa may Taiwan at sa southern part ng China, at ‘yong iba naman po ay nagre-recurve o lumiliko at tumatama din sa may southern part ng Japan or sa may Korea,” he added.

(For the past years, during the month of July, there were only two scenarios: landfall and non-landfalling storms.  Those who do not make landfall either move toward Taiwan and southern China, while others recurve or turn toward southern Japan and Korea.)

Rojas further explained that there are instances wherein storms entering the PAR from the eastern border then make their way to Southern Luzon, or even down toward the eastern Visayas area.

“Para naman po sa mga landfalling na bagyo sa buwan ng Hulyo, mas mataas (ang tsansa) na ito’y tumama sa kalupaan ng Luzon, d’yan po sa may northern Luzon, pero meron din pong mga bagyo na nagdaan sa buwan Hulyo at tumama dito sa may southern Luzon at sa may Samar island,” he noted.

(For the times that storms made landfall, there is a higher chance that it hits the landmass of Luzon, over northern Luzon specifically.  However, there are also instances where storms every July move over the southern Luzon and Samar Island area.)

The next three cyclones would be given local names of Emong, Fabian, and Gorio.

Earlier, Pagasa said that they are currently monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) that may enter the PAR in the coming hours.  If it intensifies into a tropical depression, it would be the first storm for July, and would be named Emong.

However, estimates from Pagasa also showed that the possible tropical depression may not affect local weather, and instead dissipate over the Philippine Sea.