Is the 10 percent slump in Vice President Jejomar Binay’s polls the beginning of a free fall? Good question, as Commission on Audit data shovels up more data on embedded graft.
But this can smudge equally compelling issues. Today, over 6.2 million Filipinos are at risk from severe flooding, says Climate Central’s new analysis. It tracks surging sea levels and flood risk based on new worldwide data.
Publication came when the Philippines finished casualty-cum-damage reports inflicted by tropical Storm “Mario” (international name Fung-Wong). Twelve died, 14 injured and two were missing, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council tallies show. Evacuees crested at 63,254 and the damage bill came to P389.1 million.
Historically, the strongest typhoons lash in the year’s last three “Ber” months: October, November and December. Since the 1990s, they’ve been increasingly stronger. Typhoon “Neneng” ( International name Phanphone) entered Philippine Area of Responsibility Friday but will probably skid northwards.
This will not be the last storm. Increasingly severe storms threaten as climate change cuts across Asia, write Gregor Aisch, David Leonhardt and Kevin Quealy. One out of four Vietnamese cluster in areas “likely to be subject” to regular floods by end of this century. Four percent of China’s residents — 50 million people — live in the same kind of areas.
Globally, eight of the 10 large countries most at risk are in Asia. About one person in 40 will be locked into places likely to be swamped, if today’s climate patterns persist. Data indicates 2014 could be the hottest year since 2010. No one guarantees the thermometers will dip soon.
“Filipinos bear a disproportionate amount of the burden when it comes to climate change,” President Benigno Aquino III told the UN Climate Summit. He pointed to the battering inflicted by supertyphoon “Yolanda”, saying: “Nations should not wait for another’s action before determining its own.”
“We are dangerously close to condemning the next generation to a future that is beyond our capacity to repair,” US President Barrack Obama told the same forum. “In each of our countries, there will be interests resistant to action… But we have to lead…”
Rising sea levels could uproot 13.6 million Filipinos by 2050, Asian Development Bank projected in an earlier study “Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific.” Three typhoons, in as many years, lashed Mindanao. The island used to reel from a wayward storm every 17 years or so.
In “Environmental Science for Social Change” Dr. Wendy Clavano identifies “high risk” provinces. These flank Lingayen Gulf, Camotes Sea, Guimaras Strait, waters along Sibuyan and central Sulu plus bays in Iligan, Lamon and Bislig. Chances of Manila flooding yearly rose to 65 percent, and Davao to 90 percent.
“Global climate is changing faster than our politics”, wrote Matt Malone, SJ. Many of the UN Climate Change protesters came from other nations. In politics, we used to call that kind of momentum “the big Mo’”—the invisible, unquantifiable, powerful force created by a succession of wins or other events that break your way.
The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro was the first international gathering of leaders to discuss climate change. It seemed then, two or three negotiations more, the outcome would be a binding treaty to curb strict carbon emissions. That did not come to pass.
China since then overtook the US as the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. Russia’s economy hinges on extraction of fossil fuels. “Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today is 42 percent greater than before the Industrial Revolution”, World Meteorological Organization estimates red flags are multiplying.
Here, coping with climate changes rests on local governments. The country has 81 provinces, 144 cities, 1,490 towns and 42,028 barangays. How many have crafted action plans to cope with the inevitable havoc from altered weather ahead?
Albay is an exception. As a “first line of defense”, the Center for Initiatives on Research and Climate Action drew up land use plans, zoning and risk mapping. These redirected business and over 10,000 households towards safer locations.
Social preparation programs range from training like evacuation to local media are also used for programs on climate change. The province has ambulances, rubber boats, passenger trucks, helicopters, and fire trucks that could evacuate 160,000 people per day if needed.
Albay’s program targets pre-emptive evacuation—the province’s key response mechanism to achieve its zero casualty goal. Protocols for evacuation are well established and a ready budget for calamities is maintained.
These tamped down Albay’s casualty list to zero for 16 years now. Two national laws — “Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010” and“ Climate Change Act of 2009” were enacted based on the Albay model.
Another exception is the third class town of San Francisco in Cebu’s Camotes group of islands. Led by former mayor Alfredo Arquillano Jr., the townsfolk created a local system in reducing and confronting disasters and also in facilitating efficient delivery of basic services. Each barangay has a hazard map and action plan.
The system enabled town officials to track before Typhoon Yolanda hit and evacuate people in a swift orderly manner — with zero casualties. It has become a world model for disaster preparedness since.
Where do the other LGUS stand? Many focus on wangling Internal Revenue Allotment fund slabs for basketball courts, waiting sheds and, in some cases, larger allowances for themselves.
Many have disaster response programs — on paper. That guarantees their officials will be among storm refugees when – not if – the next storm hits.
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