Pagasa: El Niño may bring drought to Camarines Norte, Southern Leyte

MANILA, Philippines — Camarines Norte and Southern Leyte would likely experience drought in the coming months due to the looming effects of the El Niño phenomenon, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on Tuesday.

Pagasa senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas said the drought is forecast to occur in these two provinces from July to December this year.

“Camarines Norte and also Southern Leyte ang ine-expect natin magka-drought dahil sa five consecutive months niya na below-normal rainfall conditions,” Abastillas said in a climate outlook forum.

(We are expecting that drought might occur in Camarines Norte and Southern Leyte due to their five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall conditions.)

Aside from drought, she added that “dry condition,” or two consecutive months of below-average rainfall conditions, may prevail in 28 provinces and areas nationwide, while “dry spell,” or three consecutive months below regular rainfall occurrences, is expected in 36 provinces in Luzon and Visayas.

Below is the list of areas and provinces that would likely experience “dry condition” and “dry spell” in the coming months, according to Pagasa:

Dry condition

Luzon

• Abra
• Batanes
• Cagayan

Visayas

• Negros Occidental
• Negros Oriental
• Bohol
• Cebu
• Siquijor

Mindanao

• Zamboanga del Norte
• Zamboanga del Sur
• Sibugay
• Bukidnon
• Camiguin
• Lanao del Norte
• Misamis Occidental
• Misamis Oriental
• Davao Occidental
• Davao Oriental
• South Cotabato
• Sultan Kudarat
• Basilan
• Maguindanao
• Lanao del Sur
• Sulu
• Tawi-Tawi

Dry spell 

Luzon

• Abra
• Benguet
• Ifugao
• Kalinga
• Apayao
• Mountain province
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Isabela
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Bataan
• Bulacan
• Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Metro Manila
• Batangas
• Laguna
• Rizal
• Quezon
• Marinduque
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Romblon
• Palawan
• Spratly Islands
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes

Visayas

• Antique
• Guimaras
• Iloilo
• Leyte

Last May 2, Pagasa raised an El Niño Alert, forecasting dry conditions nationwide from June to August until early 2024, from El Niño Watch status issued on March 24.

After raising the status to El Niño Alert, weather specialist Junie Ruiz said 31 areas or provinces in most parts of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas, and most parts of Northern and Eastern Mindanao experienced near to above normal rainfall conditions as of June.

During the same period, below-normal and way below-normal rainfall conditions prevailed in 45 provinces nationwide and Bicol Region, respectively.

Among the provinces that experienced below-normal rainfall, five provinces (Aurora, Batangas, Isabela, Mountain Province, and Tarlac) experienced “dry conditions,” and “dry spells” occurred in five other provinces (Abra, Apayao, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Kalinga).

With El Niño’s looming threat, Ruiz advised locals to start conserving water and local government units to coordinate with concerned government agencies to fix or report water leaks.

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